If I had a million dollars
I made the following predictions about a month ago..lets see how they panned out. Basically I will tell you now that if I had money to invest I would be a millionaire in a year:
Short IBanks
Results: Still in play, as their writedowns are going to get even bigger. But the ETF IYF(indvestment banking index) has dropped 3 or 4 points.
Short Commercial Real Estate REITS
Results: Moody's: Commercial Real Estate Prices Fall 2.3% in March(Month over Month basis) which is the most since they have been colleting the data. Year over Year the figure is like 5.7%
BUY Emerging Markets ETFs which shorts emerging market companies
Results: This one was wrong. The commodities boom is a good for emerging markets and their currenecies. But we will see what happens as the crisis moves farther East.
Short Regional Banks, ie Regions in st. louis
Results: Many regional banks are going out of business, Regions specifically lost 80 percent of profit. And the Regional Bank index is down 6 points which is a lot for an ETF.
Short Online AD Companies
Results: This one was brilliant. Online ADs are decreasing at a really fast rate. Most of Google's ad revenue comes from financial services companies and those have declined like 25 or 30 percent. This is compounded by the fact that online job ads index has declined 2 points, which is a lot.
Short Clothing
Results: Clothing has been hit by inflation. Liz Clairborne stock has d, will continue to drop..along with all the other clothnig manufacturers. Abercrombie for example is down from 82 to 74..with more to come. American Eagle from 24 to 18, with more to come.
Buy CCU
Results: Won't be known until next month.
Short CDS contracts of retail companies
Results: The bankruptcy rate went up something like 700 percent in the last month. There are CDS contracts that are worth much more than they were worth. And will continue to gain value as more companies are threatned to go out of business I said short but I meant buy.
Buy Swiss Franc, its a real asset
Reults: Dollar made recovery. But this one is supposed to be for the long term. People put their money in the Swiss Franc cause its real and safe.
Short IBanks
Results: Still in play, as their writedowns are going to get even bigger. But the ETF IYF(indvestment banking index) has dropped 3 or 4 points.
Short Commercial Real Estate REITS
Results: Moody's: Commercial Real Estate Prices Fall 2.3% in March(Month over Month basis) which is the most since they have been colleting the data. Year over Year the figure is like 5.7%
BUY Emerging Markets ETFs which shorts emerging market companies
Results: This one was wrong. The commodities boom is a good for emerging markets and their currenecies. But we will see what happens as the crisis moves farther East.
Short Regional Banks, ie Regions in st. louis
Results: Many regional banks are going out of business, Regions specifically lost 80 percent of profit. And the Regional Bank index is down 6 points which is a lot for an ETF.
Short Online AD Companies
Results: This one was brilliant. Online ADs are decreasing at a really fast rate. Most of Google's ad revenue comes from financial services companies and those have declined like 25 or 30 percent. This is compounded by the fact that online job ads index has declined 2 points, which is a lot.
Short Clothing
Results: Clothing has been hit by inflation. Liz Clairborne stock has d, will continue to drop..along with all the other clothnig manufacturers. Abercrombie for example is down from 82 to 74..with more to come. American Eagle from 24 to 18, with more to come.
Buy CCU
Results: Won't be known until next month.
Short CDS contracts of retail companies
Results: The bankruptcy rate went up something like 700 percent in the last month. There are CDS contracts that are worth much more than they were worth. And will continue to gain value as more companies are threatned to go out of business I said short but I meant buy.
Buy Swiss Franc, its a real asset
Reults: Dollar made recovery. But this one is supposed to be for the long term. People put their money in the Swiss Franc cause its real and safe.
posted by John Liberty at 9:54 AM
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